Sunday, January 26, 2014

Difference between Weather and Climate 1-26-2014

The Difference between Weather and Climate          1-26-2014

   This discussion is for an assignment in Week 1 of the Climate Change course from Exeter University.  Section 1.5  calls for discussion and examples of "weather" vs. "climate.

  "Weather" concerns relatively short-term events or forecasts of temperature, precipitation, wind, storms, and so forth.  A trend in the climate is measured over a much longer span, typically thirty years or more.
    We've had some extreme "weather" here in Austin in the last few days:  Friday, Jan. 24, we woke to a quarter inch sheet of ice formed by freezing rain and sleet, which shut down the city.   Ice is rare here--our unprepared and inexperienced drivers had 274 car wrecks.  Low, 25 F (-3.9C). By the next afternoon, it was 67F (19.4C).
    It is harder to know what changes to attribute to climate change.  I've lived here since 1967, and I remember we used to have infrequent cold snaps down below 20F (-7C), which would  break pipes all over the city and you wouldn't be able to get a plumber for days.  I don't think we've gotten that cold since the 1980's.
       People often move and don't have a base of comparison.  A friend of mine who grew up in Austin, which is now 10 times more populous, remembers seeing as a child (which would have been in about the 1950's) such large thick flocks of monarch butterflies crossing Highway 183 that the driver couldn't see and had to pull over.  Now the flocks are insignificant.  Monarchs migrate south yearly, all wintering in a tiny area in the mountains of Mexico, where their numbers are observed to have fallen.  Many factors including agriculture practices may impact them.  Perhaps climate change does also.   They fly north for three generations, then the fourth generation flies back all the way to Mexico.  To have that specific destination so programmed in some way into their genetics makes it difficult to see how they could adapt to much climate change.  Many other species of animals and insects have been observed shifting their habitats northward.
    Addendum:  Since writing the above, I encountered this article that describes the reasons for Monarch migration slowing to a trickle.  It does include climate change.

 Why Has The Magnificent Monarch Butterfly Migration Slowed To A Trickle? | ThinkProgress

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/01/31/3230561/monarch-migration-decline/

Addendum (March 4, 2014):  Monarchs have reached their lowest numbers ever. In California, the population has fallen 80% in 15 years.  The National Resources Defense Council has called for regulation of the use of glyphosates (Roundup) in agriculture. http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-monarch-butterfly-roundup-20140224,0,1342942.story#axzz2uuu1VHk3

Friday, January 24, 2014

INTRODUCTION: Why Study Climate Change? 1-24-2014

INTRODUCTION: Why Study Climate Change?                         1-24-2014

 I recently signed up for a "MOOC" (Massive Open Online Course) from the  Exeter University on the subject of climate change.  The introductory material suggests that we share our reasons for wanting to take the course.  For me, it was this:

A recent article on the alternative news site, Truthdig, go
t me thinking even more than I usually do about climate change.  The title was "Are We Falling Off the Climate Precipice?"  Dated 12-13-2013, at this link:




It is already clear that climate change is underway.  But I have wondered:  Where is the tipping point for unacceptable (or catastrophic, or runaway) climate change? 

 I certainly have previously read alarming arguments in any number of places.  This article and its associated links have brought some of those thoughts into sharp and uncomfortable focus.  Three of them are:  1) The most recent data coming in, including from a purpose-built satellite, shows trends that exceed projections.  2) Even considering the widespread agreement among climate scientists (97% is quoted often these days), scientists tend to want to be conservative and avoid sounding alarmist.  3) If you factor in the lack of political progress on setting and meeting climate-protecting goals, well... 

So there you have it.  Is it time to panic? Despair? Hope?  Even if when the course is done I may agree or disagree with its conclusions, I do seek a stronger foundation of scientific knowledge of climate-change processes.  Hopefully with more and more of us gaining a deeper knowledge of the subject, it will lend us more effectiveness toward whatever measures each of us undertakes toward dealing with the challenge.